Prediction: 2018 will be the year that California revolts against President Donald Trump .. and the entire Federal system.
Starting January 2018, upper class Californians will begin to decide that life would be more prosperous if California was separated from the rest of America. Also during this time, most of California’s middle class will conclude that it would be safer if California was legally separated from the grip of American law.
Changes to the Federal Tax Law are going to offset almost all of California’s upper class, costing them tens of thousands of dollars in extra taxes. Legal decisions by a now politicized Federal Supreme Court will mean the demise of many rights that Californian groups have grown accustomed to.
When these two groups combine — the upper class and the middle class masses- and focus their anger on the injustices they have faced through this new presidency, a revolution is sure to follow. This outbreak will be squarely directed at the American Federal government.
ALLOW ME TO EXPLAIN:
If you belong to one of these groups below, life as you know it has the potential to dramatically change by the end of Spring 2018. Trump has spoken about certain policies that he wishes to enforce that if passed, will forever change the dynamics of California.
AFFECTED GROUPS IN 2018:
- WOMEN: Will have little to no rights over their bodies concerning abortion
- LATINOS: Will have to deal with a discriminatory and racist border wall being constructed
- UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS (specifically Latinos and Asians) : Will be thoroughly searched for and punished, with the likelyhood of facing charges and/or deportation -effectively breaking family bonds and weakening California’s economy -
- PROTESTERS: Can be arrested at any time after the protest. Also can be banned from protesting near the event or building that public attention should be drawn to -eliminating the effectiveness of said protest-
- MUSLIMS: Can be banned from coming to California because they are openly Muslim, causing a general halt in immigration among Muslims — also placing discomfort upon Muslim Californians -
- IMMIGRANTS: Will live in fear of being targeted and forced out of California — reducing immigration flow and threatening California’s economy -
- ALL CALIFORNIANS: Will lose protection from random gun violence — California laws will no longer be able to enforce the same restrictions on gun ownership as previous years -
- UNION MEMBERS: Will no longer be able to effectively protect workers’ rights
As shown in brief summarized bullet points, the Federal government could easily take away these liberties that many groups in California have become accustomed to. The section titled “why the middle class will revolt” will more thoroughly explain how Californians could lose so much so soon.
California’s upper class controls much of the money circulating within the state, and has great influence on both the media and the government. The middle class has power in numbers. If both the middle class and the upper class are motivated by fear and anger, their desires for radical change can easily become a reality.
When examining three of the largest and most radical revolutions in the modern era, the French, American, and Protestant revolutions, we see that the Upper Class citizens with wealth and influence upon the press desire a new form of government. The lower class, also unhappy with the system in place, willingly create “people’s armies” — “The Natural history of revolution” by Lyford Edwards, page 77–80
This dynamic that has fueled many other revolutionary fires could happen in California as soon as the end of spring 2018. When this happens, it can be predicted that Californians will push for independence from America.
Critics and non-believers:
Many critics will claim that I am too harsh in assuming that the Federal Court will remove rights for so many people. They cannot believe the thesis that women, immigrants, undocumented immigrants, Muslims, protesters and union members will all be attacked. However, they must consider that the Supreme Court as we know it has changed. For most of America’s history the Final Court was staffed by people who made decisions based on the law, and not on popular opinion. The court was independent of other branches of Federal government. However, according to reports by the New York Times, the Federal court is now as politicized as Congress and the President. This means the Supreme Court is bound to make decisions by what the current President and the current Congress would like to see.
“The Court is now composed of four liberals and five conservatives. Jeffrey Toobin, legal analyst at CNN, was on the mark when he observed, “When it comes to the core of the Court’s work … it is ideology, not craft or skill, that controls the outcome of cases.” Similarly, Richard A. Posner, the great conservative judge and law professor, has written, “It is rarely possible to say with a straight face of a Supreme Court decision that it was decided correctly or incorrectly.” Constitutional cases, he added, “can be decided only on the basis of a political judgment, and a political judgment cannot be called right or wrong by reference to legal norms.”
Congress and President Trump appointed a conservative to the court recently, tipping the balance so conservatives are now the majority. From all indications Gorsuch (the newly appointed Associate Justice of the Supreme Court) has just as much of a political leaning as Trump. This means the impartial Federal court no longer exists. We’ve already seen how polarized and radical the rest of the Federal government can be these days, so the Federal Supreme Court is bound to be no different.
It is also likely that Trump and or the Republicans in Congress are going to be able to appoint 1 to 2 more judges to the court, shifting the inbalance to an even more dominant politically charged conservative ruling.
“If Trump gets to name one more justice to the nine-member court, he can shift the balance to a strongly conservative majority that could last for decades and overturn laws and previous rulings on abortion, same-sex marriage, voting rights, the separation of church and state, press freedom, and workers’ rights, among other issues. Many Americans hope that the 84-year-old liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg and 81-year-old swing Justice Anthony Kennedy don’t die or resign until a Democratic president can be elected in 2020 and appoint their replacements.”
“The average age at which justices retire, you may remember from this April 2014 piece we wrote, is 78.7. Right at this moment, three justices are over that mark: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy.”
Right now, Ginsburg and Kennedy are over the age that most American Federal Supreme court judges retire; meaning democratic rulings in the supreme court are dwindling.
Those who are in opposition to the secession movement often support the resistance.
The ‘Resistance’ is still a strong movement in California . . . but it is based on the idea that California can always fight back within the bounds of America’s law to protect their interests.
“Contemporaneously, on a parallel but significantly more consequential rail to the secession movement, Californian lawmakers, activists, and judges began to give citizens another potential outlet for their indignation over the election of Trump. . . .legal scholars and non-secession-supporting Californians I spoke to emphasized the legal ways that California can toe the line of what is permitted constitutionally. A nonviolent resistance to the imposition of federal law.”
“The next venue for more assertive action from California officials is likely to be the courts, where the rights of states versus the federal government are tested. Just as conservative Texas used litigation in an attempt to stymie then-President Obama on immigration and environmental policy, California is looking to the judiciary to block Trump’s goals.”
This dismissal of secession due to the belief that California can use the Federal system of law to push back against the Federal government will end very soon.
- Women have their right to an abortion denied,
- and the border wall is built first in California,
- and undocumented Californians are searched for and given harsh felony sentences,
- and protesters are arrested after protests
- and protests are no longer able to be near the issue or area they are protesting
- and Muslim travelers and immigrants stop coming to California because they don’t believe they will be treated fairly in a land that prides itself on acceptance
- and immigrants are scared to live in California because they are subject to American law
- and Californians are afraid to go out in public because people are legally allowed to walk in public with firearms
- and Union members no longer can depend on a union to protect their employment rights
California’s citizens are going to lose hope in the belief that the American federalist system is effective in protecting them and their quality of life. When this epiphany occurs, many will drop from the “Resist” movement. The resistance is alive in California today because it promises that it can roll back Trump’s unethical policies. When that premise is shown to be untrue, the movement will have nothing to offer.
At that point there will be two options for Californians to turn to:
- They will act out in an illegal fashion, encouraging violence as a way of fighting back. This will cause groups such as Antifa to rise, and lead to bloody street riots ( as seen in the comic book “Calexit” which has been popular the last few months).
2. Californians will see that the only way they can permanently guarantee their safety and rights is through separating from America and its justice system. This will bring popularity back to Yes California and the secession movement.
The only other option would be for Californians to lie down and accept Trump and his policies.
California’s movement toward Antifa as of now seems highly unlikely. While they may be intrigued by the movement, and interested by a Comic book that shows violent revolt , most citizens of California are against the use of violence. For example, when Antifa held a protest against racism in Sacramento (June 2016) and stabbed Neo-Nazi protesters, Californians reacted in horror to the fact that public violence had been used in their capitol. Though they also hated racism and what the Neo Nazi’s stood for, Californians believed that bringing knives to a protest and attacking people violently was not reflective of California’s values.
Californians pioneered the peace and love movement in the 1960s, opposed both the Vietnam and Iraq wars, and have continuously opposed military use to solve American conflicts. As Governor Brown stated, “Californians build bridges. Americans build walls”.
Due to California’s past patterns and ideologies, it is highly unlikely that they will join violent resistance groups or sit back whilst immoral laws and practices are continuously passed. This means the most likely action Californians will take is joining Yes California and the secession movement.
It’s true that the dream of California forming a new nation and creating a national government may seem unachievable , but we must recognize that California is the place where big dreams actually happen. In the 1980s, when the world thought that the Cold War would never end, and could never see a peaceful coexistence between the USSR and USA, Californians believed that the two governments could come to agreements. Glasnost was the achievement of something seemingly impossible, that California believed in.
“This initiative came at a time when Cold War tensions were at their peak. The program was credited with substantial success in fostering peaceful private exchanges between citizens of the ‘super powers’.”
In the 2000s California found a new challenge- pushing back Climate Change. America, the United Nations,and the European Union all believed that forming regulations to deal with Climate Change and forcing governments to accept said regulations was impossible. They gave up on seriously trying. California took initiative and created new government regulations, ignoring the criticism. The UN was impressed by California’s ability to ignore doubt and enforce true change , and even ceded authority to California to continue the global dialogue.
“After last year’s successful Governors’ Global Climate Summit, the United Nations asked California to host another summit focused on the great work of cities, states and regions, which already are ahead of federal governments in developing solutions to the climate challenge.” — “Governor Schwarzenegger and United Nations Open Governors’ Global Climate Summit 2” By Cindy Holden California Newswire, 30 Sep 2009
Californians believed that there could be peaceful government agreements to end the Cold War, and saw their dreams become reality. Californians believed that the world could regulate global warming, and saw their dreams become reality. Californians are people who can believe in creating a new national government, and see these dreams become reality.
Add to the fact that most people in California have already heard of Calexit, and have witnessed their governor be treated like a President by many nations, and it’s reasonable to conclude that the idea of secession is already in the back of many Californians’ minds. All that is needed now is a good reason to secede — and I predict that reason will come no later than the end of Spring 2018.
WHY YOU SHOULD BELIEVE ME:
A. Every claim made will have citations for evidence that you can verify yourself. While the overall essay states a radical prediction, the points that are drawn are not radical, and have already been stated by mainstream news sources.
B. My previous predictions have been correct.
In 2011, I predicted that there would be conflict between America and Russia around Ukraine, and also between China and America around South East Asia, when I published my book “California’s Next Century”. In February 2016, before anyone knew Trump would run for presidency, I predicted American institutions would stop functioning, that America would appear to begin falling apart, and that its international reputation at this time would be dramatically and quickly reduced. In October 2016, I predicted in an interview that America will begin to lose allies as newly emerging powers start to challenge America more directly. November 6 2016, days before the election, before anyone knew Trump would win and most of America thought Hillary Clinton was going to be president, I predicted that America would become more publicly and violently racist.
C. California has already lost lawsuits against Trump. Although this is not talked about very often by the California government, the resistance movement has lost some major battles.
ISSUES THE CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT HAS ALREADY LOST TO TRUMP:
- BORDER WALL PREVENTION: said they would punish any company that helps build this wall — FAILED
- INTERNET PRIVACY PROTECTION: said they would push back against Federal regulations that removed protections to your data staying private on the internet — FAILED
- OFFSHORE DRILLING PREVENTION: said they would prevent oil drilling along the coast — FAILED
- CLEAN AIR AND WATER ACTS PROTECTION: said they would prevent Federal government from loosening protections on clean air and water — FAILED.
- PROTECTION FROM POLICE VIOLENCE: said they would protect innocent civilians from police shooting, and make sure the police are held accountable for their actions — FAILED
- PROVISION FOR UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRATION: said they would provide health care for Undocumented immigrants — FAILED
- PROTECTION OF WATER IN A DROUGHT: said they would protect water supplies for Californians, and not allow water to be shipped out of California for profit — FAILED
- PROVISION OF HEALTH CARE FOR POOR: said they would keep health care alive for Californians. They did not pass the Single Payer health care reform, so Californians are still dependent on Obama Care. The Federal government is currently cutting the financial sources that keep the program running with a revised tax-code, which puts Obama Care’s ability to keep the poor insured in jeopardy. An estimated 2 million people living in poverty will be cut off from health insurance, and California has no plan to fix it. — PARTIAL FAIL
- NOT COOPERATING WITH FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAW: When Donald Trump proposed that he would ban travel from 7 many Muslim countries, protesters said that it was racists to ban travel from Muslim countries and vowed they would shut down the ban. The American Supreme Court said that a “partial ban” that only listed 6 mainly Muslim countries could go forward. The ban is not as strong as was initially proposed, and includes fewer countries, but it still bans people from a large number of mostly Muslim countries from being to freely travel to any part of America. The News considered this a “partial victory for the Trump administration”. Completely blocking this racists ban was shut down by the Federal supreme court. — PARTIAL FAIL
- PREVENTING RACIST IMMIGRATION BAN: When the sanctuary law for CA was originally proposed by Californians, it said it would ban any cooperation between California police and federal Immigration agents. However, this is not what was actually passed. “The current iteration of the bill is significantly watered down from the original version, as the L.A. Times points out, following weeks of negotiation between de León and Governor Brown. For example, the current bill still allows federal immigration officials to work with state correctional facilities as well as allowing ICE officials to enter jails to question immigrants. It also allows state police and sheriff’s officials to share information with ICE, and possibly transfer people to ICE custody, if a person is found convicted of one or more crimes from the California Trust Act.” “The new legislation will allow U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents access state law enforcement databases — something de Leon sought to prohibit in his original proposal.” — PARTIAL FAIL
The section “California has already failed to keep its promises on protecting its people” will walk through all of the material that leads to these conclusions.
The question Id like to ask is, if California has already failed on these big issues, why do Californians continue to believe they will win the court cases coming up February to March 2018 to protect their rights?
Basically everyone knows that California is the “epicenter of the resistance” to Trump. Even foreign news talks about this fact routinely. California has been able to get its population to support the “resist” movement because it has been able to sell the idea that Federalism can be saved; that it is possible to use the system of laws in America to protect Californians’ interests. CA attorney General routinely talks about the faith he has in the constitution of America.
However, In January 2016, when Trump was inaugurated, I asked three questions:
- What happens if the “resistance” does not work?
- What if the Federal government turns down all of the lawsuits filed by the CA gov, and says that CA does not have the right to protect its people as it sees fit?
- What happens if the Federal government says that Trump’s ideas will go forward, be implemented, and can’t be repealed?
I predict that WE Californians are going to find out the answers to these questions this spring.
When elected officials are forced to admit that they can’t protect Californians’ prosperity and rights with the American Federalist system, then they will be forced to start entertaining the option of a Cal Exit.
Perhaps this prediction still sounds extreme… but consider this … last month, for the first time in California’s history, the Governor of California publicly said that it does not feel as though the Federal government views Californians as fellow Americans. The Federal government is hostile to California and is specifically targeting them. The Governor concluded that this was “not treating America as one nation”. In over 160 years of California’s existence that has never happened.
Critics will say a California politician talking about how Californians are not viewed as part of America does not mean secession will occur. However, consider this: the President of Catalonia’s Parliament publicly embraced sovereignty in 2012 when only 17% of Catalonians supported secession. By 2015, the amount jumped to 48%. With just one influential politician backing independence, the support of the movement grew from around 1/6 of the population to ½ within 3 years.
According to Reuters, Californians already showed in January 2017 that 32% support sovereignty, and 47% are not opposed to seriously discussing the concept. California is already above the percentage of support for independence that Catalonia had. Does this mean that in 3 years California will be independent?
“Marcus learned from Reuters that an additional 15 percent said they ‘don’t know’ (which he heard as ‘weren’t opposed’) which he accounted for as swayable voters, which gets you to over 45 percent, which is basically 50, which is a yes vote to hold the Stay-or-Leave referendum,and ding-dong, California’s a country.”
This quick movement to full secession seen in Catalonia is actually standard for secession movements. It is more common for secession to happen rapidly once the public shifts its mood. One of the most in-depth studies of secession said that:
“Negotiations about secession are not protracted. When a unit breaks up peacefully, the two sides disengage quickly”. They made it clear that when the people no longer feel attached to each other culturally — the political leaders quickly come to an agreement for secession. “Negotiations…are fast”. — “How Do Peaceful Secessions Happen?.” By Robert Young, Political Economy Research Group. Papers in Political Economy, 58. London, ON: Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario (1994), page 2 & 13.
According to some estimates we are already half way through the 3rd year leading to secession.
No,I am not exaggerating. California has been thumbing its nose at the Federal government since March 2016. By the end of Spring, it will be a full 3 year cycle since California has been out right confronting the Federal government’s right to rule. Refer to “3 year timeline of California moving to independence”.
When looking at the timeline of California insulting the American President, and challenging the control of the Federal government- also seeing how the government responded to California’s insults & tirades- consider the most cutting edge research on how radicals are made.
This particular study examines how terrorists and white supremacists are made, but the rule applies to any person who suddenly becomes fully committed to an idea that before seemed incredibly radical.
“His dramatic conversion came after a series of psychological steps that are occurring regularly in our communities today: aspiration to belong, misrecognition, disengagement and disidentification. Outside of our prison experiment, the story goes something like this: Radical minority leaders use violence and hate to provoke majority authorities to institute a culture of surveillance against minority group members. This culture stokes misrecognition, which drives up disidentification and disengagement from the mainstream. And this distancing can make the arguments of the radicals harder to dismiss. Our point is that radical minority voices are not enough to radicalize someone, nor are the individual’s own experiences. What is potent, though, is the mix of the two and their ability to reinforce and amplify each other.”
Scientists now claim there is a four step process -that if any regular person goes through- will convert them into someone who is now willing to hold and act on radical beliefs.
- “Aspiration to belong, to be included, to be valued by the group.”
- “Misrecognition on the part of the group, failing to value that individual, identifying them as an outsider.”
- “Disengagement on the part of the individual, pulling back from the pain of wanting to belong.”
- “Disidentification from the group.”
Now consider that most Californians, even those who don’t consciously like the idea of Calexit, are already in stage 4.
- Californians wanted to be seen as normal Americans.
- Conservatives in America routinely talk about how backwards California is, disregarding their wants and labeling them as kooky. Last month, many newspapers across California pointed out that it seems like the American government doesn’t value California because they did not announce they would spend disaster funds on dealing with California’s forest fires.
- Almost all newspapers in California conclude that Californians do act differently than the rest of Americans, amd seem to do things that Americans find strange-like banning plastic bags-.
- The third most powerful politician in CA, Kevin De Leon, stated a few months ago that he saw America as a foreign land. The most powerful politician in CA , Jerry Brown , said a few weeks ago that he is concerned that America doesn’t view California as part of America.
A few more politicians publicly stating their discomfort and disidentification with America might be all that is needed to ignite a Catalonian fire for secession in Californians at large and fully complete the last stage that will launch the entire state to become irreparably radicalized.
For references — go to this essay: