Economic impact to CA — by creating the World’s first (recognized) Native Nation
For comments about methodology, email: Marcus.Ruiz.Evans@gmail.com
ECONOMIC IMPACT
It is ASSUMED that these counties would be lost to California along with all of their economic power (Siskiyou, Del Norte, Modoc, Placer, Trinity, Shasta, Lassen, El Dorado, Plumas, Nevada, Sierra, Mono, Alpine, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Inyo, Mariposa). NOTE: Some of these counties will have land that stays in California, so the assumption that there will be a complete loss is not accurate, and means that the economic loss to California is lower than what is stated.
It is ASSUMED that Madera, Fresno, Tulare, Kern, Riverside and Imperial counties have all of their lost land restricted to only Federal land, and lose no population centers. Because of this fact, it is assumed that the economic loss is much more limited to just Federal employees, Department of Defense, and Resource extraction jobs. Because citizens and businesses are not generally permitted to own land in a Federal reserve, we assume that the economic loss will not include business sales and personal property value overall.
It is ASSUMED the hospitality and leisure industry will not experience a loss in the counties of San Bernardino, Kern, and Riverside because they have large urban areas, where most of the entertainment industry, and hotels are. These are urbanized counties despite having large land areas. Most of the hospitality and leisure that would not happen in the urban areas for these counties would be at Native Casinos, and almost all of them are staying with California.
It is ASSUMED that San Bernardino, is like Madera, Fresno, Tulare, Kern, Riverside and Imperial counties in that not all of the county will be economically lost, however, some of the lost land in San Bernardino is not only restricted to Federal land, and the county will lose the cities of Big Bear, Big Bear Lake, Twentynine Palms, and Joshua Tree.
CALIFORNIA County-Level Economic Forecast 2016–2050, Taxable sales in 2018 shows how much money each county makes, and Personal Income in 2018 shows how much wealth each county holds now.
Current Industry Employment Statistics, by Labor Market Information by County for 2018, by the California Government Employment Development Department, shows how many Federal employees, Department of Defense employees, and natural resources extraction jobs, such as logging and mining are in each of these counties. NOTE: This analysis assumed that all Construction jobs would be lost because Natural Resources, and Mining is compiled with Construction jobs — but this assumptions is not correct, so the actual economic loss for Madera, Fresno, Tulare, Kern, Riverside and Imperial counties is less than what is stated.
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Labor Force Data San Bernardino County 2018 by the California Government Employment Department shows how many jobs each city in San Bernardino has in the county.
When we add all of this up — the result is an average of about a 4% loss to the California economy for losing all of the land that goes to the Native Nation.
By looking at the loss to Taxable sales which shows how much money each county makes, and Personal Income which shows how much wealth each county holds now, we can see an overall impact to the California economy. The average amount of loss for Personal Income and Taxable Sales is between 4.14–3.46%, which is about 4%. We ASSUME this means a 4% loss to the California GDP.
This small a loss for creating the World’s-first-recognized Native Nation is so small it won’t affect California’s Global GDP rank.
