(DRAFT — IN PROGRESS) If a vote were held for Calexit — here is what the Nation Of California would look like.
Or — here is a reality check for everyone saying there is a huge coastal/urban/liberal V interior/rural/conservative divide.
PART 1 — HOW WOULD THE VOTE GO
“It is common to say that a north-south divide — with the north voting Democratic and the south voting Republican — has been replaced with an east-west, or coastal-inland divide (with the coast voting Democratic and inland voting Republican). But this shorthand tells only part of the story.” - Public Policy Institute of California
If there was a vote for Calexit — it would split California between hard core rural conservatives and more urban liberals — but here is how the map of a new California nation would ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE
PART 2 — WHAT WOULD CALIFORNIA LOOK LIKE AFTER THE VOTE
What that all means (above) is that this (below) is what the Nation Of California WOULD LOOK LIKE — when a vote to secede from America is taken.
PART 3 — WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT
California keeps almost all of the key infrastructure and resources. It keeps the networks intact and is able to still operate as normal. There is no gaps in the infrastructure, or counties that would vote to leave California but are right in the middle of the remaining California and therefore could disrupt the network of transportation, water, or electricity.
They created a site called T-RACES, or Testbed for for the Redlining Archives of California’s Exclusionary Spaces. I stared and stared at the map of the East Bay because I could see the marks of this discrimination all over the city. My little neighborhood sits right next to a block of red, in a yellow strip, and near a swath of blue. It was an in-between zone, and it still feels that way. Go a few blocks west (downhill) and the neighborhoods are primarily black. Go a few blocks east (into the hills) and the neighborhoods are almost exclusively white.
America will be willing to negotiate for the removal of these training and research and development bases, and paying a lease to California for retaining the military readyness bases — because America needs Californians to keep its military strong.
“surveys and conventional wisdom indicate that large proportions of these scientists and engineers, who primarily hold advanced degrees, would choose not to relocate if their defense-related jobs left California.” (Page 68) “the state has been perceived by some to be unfriendly or indifferent to military operations.” (page 70) — Maintaining and Expanding California’s National Security Mission.
PART 4— WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC LOSS
PART 5 — How will this impact California’s freight industry — which ships goods to America.
It won’t impact it at all.
PART 6— won’t this will cut off California’s ability to import power and water from America.
That is not going to happen.
TRUE — California will CONTINUE to need to import: oil, gas, power, and water from America
AND THIS IS ALSO TRUE — Without California’s agriculture exports to America — Americans will experience shortages of foods they are used to like, corn, apples, tomatoes, lemons, while experiencing a completely boycott of things like broccoli, carrots, strawberries, and peaches.
WHEN NEGOTIATIONS START — America will want to make sure they can deliver water, oil, gas, and electricity to California or California can cut off shipments of food that America depends on.
California does not get the gas, oil and energy imports for free — it pays a fair amount for them. American states that ship these things to California will also not want to lose out on this revenue.
“The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) estimates that the State is the leading U.S. producer for 65 crop and livestock commodities. For many commodities California is not only the leading producer, it has market shares upwards of 90 percent, especially for horticultural (fruit, vegetable, nut, cut flower and ornamental) commodities, such as almonds, artichokes, plums, apricots, avocados, olives, pistachios, broccoli, table grapes, kiwifruit, raisins, prunes, nectarines, processing tomatoes, and walnuts.”
PART 7 — How can we be sure that all of the counties above would vote to stay with our California.
The areas California will lose, are dying off in population, and losing people as time goes on, and because of this they are turning increasingly elderly in overall population — because these are the only people who stay. Because the young and dynamic are leaving, and because old people tend to like to stay in their home , the areas that we will lose are mostly rural.
The rest of California in contrast is gaining people, more densely populated, urbanized in life-style, and has an average age of 20 years younger.
These demographic differences — between California and the counties that will leave — IS ONLY DRAMATICALLY INCREASING WITH TIME — with or without a vote for Calexit.
PART 8 — some of the counties that are claimed do not appear to be liberal.
They are barely conservative and can easily be switched.
A majority of the voters in Stanislaus county are registered as Democrat in 2018 and 2013 — showing a strong permanent trend in one direction. The majority of the population of Stanislaus county is in Modesto. Modesto is barely more conservative in voting and tends to vote liberal when it seems everyone else is doing it. This is why they are called a “bellweather county”.
A majority of the voters in San Joaquin county are registered as Democrat in 2018 and 2013 — showing a strong permanent trend in one direction. The majority of the population of San Joaquin county is in Stockton . Stockton is very liberal.
Democrats and Republicans have the same amount of voters in Butte County in 2018. In 2013, there were more voters registered Republican than Democratic — so the trend is changing to being more liberal. The map above for the projected 2020 election shows each of these counties with a slight conservative majority.
The reason that California can easily win the vote in these three counties, is that the background date backup what the map for a projected 2020 vote shows — these three counties are only barely conservative majority. With a little bit of attention and money the vote can be pushed to go liberal because they are not deeply or even moderately conservative — they are barely conservative counties.