(DRAFT — IN PROGRESS) If a vote were held for Calexit — here is what the Nation Of California would look like.

Or — here is a reality check for everyone saying there is a huge coastal/urban/liberal V interior/rural/conservative divide.

PART 1 — HOW WOULD THE VOTE GO

There has been many people saying that California is acting so liberal and entertaining crazy liberal ideas like Calexit — that the conservatives of California will split off, and so California is going to split itself and definitely a vote for Calexit will split California. — Newsweek, San Francisco Chronicle, Sacramento Bee, Business Insider, Public Policy Institute of California, New York Times, and New York Magazine have all said that there is a rural/ urban — aka interior/ coastal California divide between how people think in California. — Maps documenting where this division lies have been created by Stan Statham in 2017, Nigel Farage in 2017, Jeff Stone in 2011, and New California in 2018. However, none of these maps actually matches how a split of California between liberals and conservatives would go.

“It is common to say that a north-south divide — with the north voting Democratic and the south voting Republican — has been replaced with an east-west, or coastal-inland divide (with the coast voting Democratic and inland voting Republican). But this shorthand tells only part of the story.” - Public Policy Institute of California

If there was a vote for Calexit — it would split California between hard core rural conservatives and more urban liberals — but here is how the map of a new California nation would ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE

Time Magazine predicts how counties will vote in 2020, New York Times Arrow map shows the direction the voters moved in 2016 election, and the New York Times 2016 “land slide” counties map shows which counties had a 20% difference between voters who choose liberal or conservative policies, and VOX shows how political voting changed from 2004–2012. ALL FOUR these maps come to the same conclusion about which way California counties will chose in 2020.

PART 2 — WHAT WOULD CALIFORNIA LOOK LIKE AFTER THE VOTE

What that all means (above) is that this (below) is what the Nation Of California WOULD LOOK LIKE — when a vote to secede from America is taken.

PART 3 — WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT

California keeps almost all of the key infrastructure and resources. It keeps the networks intact and is able to still operate as normal. There is no gaps in the infrastructure, or counties that would vote to leave California but are right in the middle of the remaining California and therefore could disrupt the network of transportation, water, or electricity.

POPULATION …almost no population loss to California.

FUTURE POPULATION — no future population loss. None of the area that California will lose is growing population.

FARMLAND — almost all of the rich farmlands stays in tact.

ECONOMIC AND PERSONAL INTERACTION — there is almost no loss. The counties that California is going to lose, don’t have much commuter travel to the rest of California, aka they are largely cut off in personal and economic interaction.

ECONOMIC AND PERSONAL INTERACTION — there is almost no loss. The counties that California will lose most Californians never travel there, and are more likely to travel between the counties that California keeps.

FREEWAYS — the entire network is intact.

PASSENGER RAIL LINES — the entire network is intact

FREIGHT RAIL LINES — stay in tact

UNIVERSITIES — California only loses 1 university

UNIVERSITIES — California only loses 1 university

ELECTRICITY — the entire grid stays in tact

ELECTRICITY — the entire grid stays in tact

WATER … most of the dams go with America, but the water delivery network is completely intact. There is a simple plan to continue delivery of the water at the BOTTOM.

WATER … most of the dams go with America, but the water delivery network is completely intact. There is a simple plan to continue delivery of the water at the BOTTOM.

http://calindianhistory.org/california-unratified-treaties-map/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_languages_by_time_of_extinction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Indian_Wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unrecognized_tribes_in_the_United_States http://www.courts.ca.gov/3066.htm https://water.ca.gov/LegacyFiles/tribal/docs/maps/CaliforniaIndianTribalHomelands24x30_20110719.pdf

The movement of African Americans into a neighborhood was far worse according to this model, precipitating the final demise of its desirability.

They created a site called T-RACES, or Testbed for for the Redlining Archives of California’s Exclusionary Spaces. I stared and stared at the map of the East Bay because I could see the marks of this discrimination all over the city. My little neighborhood sits right next to a block of red, in a yellow strip, and near a swath of blue. It was an in-between zone, and it still feels that way. Go a few blocks west (downhill) and the neighborhoods are primarily black. Go a few blocks east (into the hills) and the neighborhoods are almost exclusively white.

FEDERAL LAND — effectively no impact.

AMERICAN MILITARY BASES — are mostly where Californians do not live, and the ones that are in population regions (blue circle) are tiny. If California removed ONLY THE TRAINING AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT BASES (dashed circle) — and left ALL OF THE MILITARY COMBAT READYNESS BASES in tact — it could remove around 90% of the land that the American military occupies and it would have NO EFFECT ON AMERICAN MILITARY CAPABILITY.

America will be willing to negotiate for the removal of these training and research and development bases, and paying a lease to California for retaining the military readyness bases — because America needs Californians to keep its military strong.

“surveys and conventional wisdom indicate that large proportions of these scientists and engineers, who primarily hold advanced degrees, would choose not to relocate if their defense-related jobs left California.” (Page 68) “the state has been perceived by some to be unfriendly or indifferent to military operations.” (page 70) — Maintaining and Expanding California’s National Security Mission.

BORDER CHECKPOINTS — California already has border checkpoints and border guards. The California Government Department of Food and Agriculture Inspection operates 16 “CA border protection stations”, where they can legally force a car to stop and submit to inspection, to see if they are bringing produce into CA. The California Government Department of Highway Patrol also has 5 “inspection facilities” for its “border division” where they can force a car to stop and submit to an inspection for drugs or immigrants coming in illegally. Both facilities have checkpoints, have the legal ability to stop you, and carry guns and have the legal right to use force to get a person to comply. CA would simply order these stations to start checking for visas instead of/along with drugs or fruit — in order to have a working border patrol. The infrastructure that you need to operate a border; checkpoints/ experienced guards, already exists.

PART 4— WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC LOSS

Barely anything.

CALIFORNIA County-Level Economic Forecast 2016–2050, listed most of this area as financially vulnerable.

While the FEDERAL Bureau of Economic Analysis did not even bother to list most of these places because they were financially insignificant.

CALIFORNIA County-Level Economic Forecast 2016–2050, Taxable sales in 2018 shows how much money each county makes, and Personal Income in 2018 shows how much wealth each county holds now. By both measures, the entire collective of counties that California would lose are — about 2% of the California economy.

The impact of losing these counties is tiny — it does not affect California’s global GDP ranking.

PART 5 — How will this impact California’s freight industry — which ships goods to America.

It won’t impact it at all.

United States Department of Transportation and Federal Highway Administration Top 25 Water Ports by Containerized Cargo: 2011 map shows that America needs California to continue to accept goods from Asia at its ports and transfer them to the main population centers in America. Without California processing freight — America would lose half of its ability to accept goods (which means Americans would have access to 50% less products that they have now), and America would lose over 1/3 of its ability to export products to other countries. America would have to double its current freight capacity in order to replace California.

California has a freight industry shipping goods to America’s population not because America loves California and wants to give it an economy but because California does a better job at moving goods faster than other ports to American customers. Other ports already compete with California. That is the only reason the Freight industry exists in California and when California secedes from America — that competitive advantage in freight shipping is not lost. Simply put, America will continue to have California process freight from Asia and ship it to America — because it makes the price of goods for America customers cheaper than if American ports handled that freight.

PART 6— won’t this will cut off California’s ability to import power and water from America.

That is not going to happen.

California’s Power Needs and How They are Met by the Transmission Agency of Northern California shows that California has to import 25% of its electricity / 13% of its oil, / 65% of its gas — from America.

Net power flows into California from other Western States map from U.S. Energy Information Administration and the detailed computer model of the electric power grid for the states west of the Kansas/Colorado border by UC Berkeley show where the power that California imports comes from.

California Department of Transportation, Freight Mobility Plan shows that the oil pipelines are not affected, and most of the gas pipelines are not affected.

TRUE — California will CONTINUE to need to import: oil, gas, power, and water from America

AND THIS IS ALSO TRUE — Without California’s agriculture exports to America — Americans will experience shortages of foods they are used to like, corn, apples, tomatoes, lemons, while experiencing a completely boycott of things like broccoli, carrots, strawberries, and peaches.

WHEN NEGOTIATIONS START — America will want to make sure they can deliver water, oil, gas, and electricity to California or California can cut off shipments of food that America depends on.

California does not get the gas, oil and energy imports for free — it pays a fair amount for them. American states that ship these things to California will also not want to lose out on this revenue.

“The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) estimates that the State is the leading U.S. producer for 65 crop and livestock commodities. For many commodities California is not only the leading producer, it has market shares upwards of 90 percent, especially for horticultural (fruit, vegetable, nut, cut flower and ornamental) commodities, such as almonds, artichokes, plums, apricots, avocados, olives, pistachios, broccoli, table grapes, kiwifruit, raisins, prunes, nectarines, processing tomatoes, and walnuts.”

California has almost all of the farm land

Most of the food that most of America grows is feed for animals, while most of the food that California grows is food for humans.

Without California’s agriculture exports to America — Americans will experience shortages of foods they are used to like, corn, apples, tomatoes, lemons, and garlic, while experiencing a completely boycott of things like broccoli, carrots, strawberries, and peaches.

PART 7 — How can we be sure that all of the counties above would vote to stay with our California.

The areas California will lose, are dying off in population, and losing people as time goes on, and because of this they are turning increasingly elderly in overall population — because these are the only people who stay. Because the young and dynamic are leaving, and because old people tend to like to stay in their home , the areas that we will lose are mostly rural.

The rest of California in contrast is gaining people, more densely populated, urbanized in life-style, and has an average age of 20 years younger.

These demographic differences — between California and the counties that will leave — IS ONLY DRAMATICALLY INCREASING WITH TIME — with or without a vote for Calexit.

California Department of Finance — Growth Projections — Projected Population Growth 2010 to 2035 Numeric Change shows that the counties that California is going to lose — are dying off because they are losing people now, and are projected to keep losing population far into the future.

California Department of Finance — Growth Projections — California Projected 2035 Median Age, shows that for two of the areas that California will lose, they are majority elderly populated. Over half of the top region California will lose in a vote is also near retirement, whereas while California has regions with majority elderly population — the overall age of California is closer to 35 years old. While elderly people are usually conservative in thought, half of the majority elderly counties in California are in the extremely liberal Bay Area, meaning they are liberal voters despite their age.

California population density map shows that the counties California would lose are almost all extremely rural and not urban, while almost every county that stays, has a majority of it’s population that is urban. This map backs up the map above that shows that these areas are massively losing population — that is why they have a low density and are mostly rural.

California’s counties with a population center, shows which counties have a major urban area in them, that holds most of the population, and which counties (not dark grey) are purely rural in composition throughout the county. Almost every count that California will lose has no population center, and is rural throughout. While the majority of counties that will stay in California all have a population center.

PART 8 — some of the counties that are claimed do not appear to be liberal.

They are barely conservative and can easily be switched.

CALIFORNIA CAN swing the vote in just these 3 counties easily.

A majority of the voters in Stanislaus county are registered as Democrat in 2018 and 2013 — showing a strong permanent trend in one direction. The majority of the population of Stanislaus county is in Modesto. Modesto is barely more conservative in voting and tends to vote liberal when it seems everyone else is doing it. This is why they are called a “bellweather county”.

A majority of the voters in San Joaquin county are registered as Democrat in 2018 and 2013 — showing a strong permanent trend in one direction. The majority of the population of San Joaquin county is in Stockton . Stockton is very liberal.

Democrats and Republicans have the same amount of voters in Butte County in 2018. In 2013, there were more voters registered Republican than Democratic — so the trend is changing to being more liberal. The map above for the projected 2020 election shows each of these counties with a slight conservative majority.

The reason that California can easily win the vote in these three counties, is that the background date backup what the map for a projected 2020 vote shows — these three counties are only barely conservative majority. With a little bit of attention and money the vote can be pushed to go liberal because they are not deeply or even moderately conservative — they are barely conservative counties.

How do we know California can swing the vote in a small county — because they have done it recently. California built a new University in Merced County. The impact of this has been to bring many young people from Urban centers like the Bay Area and Los Angeles to Merced county. Because of this the county is becoming more liberal and more young. In 2014 — Merced’s voting composition looked like this: Democrat 43% Republican 33% No Party 19%. However, in 2018 Merced’s voting composition looked like this: Democrat 44% Republican 29% No Party 23%. Support for conservatives went down and support for liberal policies went up, even if they didn’t register as a Democrat.

Both Butte County (Chico University) and Stanislaus county (Stanislaus University) have California owned and operated universities in their counties. We simple expand the amount of out of county students who go to school there by offering scholarships and the voting demographics for the county changes like they did in Merced county.

How do we know California can swing the vote in a small county — because they have done it recently. Around 2014 — Sierra County was going to join the movement to leave CA and join a new state of Jefferson. In 2015, Kevin De Leon, the 3rd highest ranking politician in California’s government traveled to the area, and meet with people and worked on proposals to improve their area. The following year in January 2016, the Sierra County Supervisors — declined to join Jefferson. Sierra county has historically been a Republican county. However, this conservative county rejected joining other conservatives and voted to stay with the rest of liberal California, and all it took was a little bit of attention and money. Chico (Butte County) would like to have a public art system but is lacking the funding, Stockton (San Joaquin county) would like to have a revitalized downtown and a public theater , Modesto county needs more staff to handle county services. California could fund all of these things, for very little money, while expanding University services.

PART 8 — the Domestic water loss (not imported from America water) — is the only real issue with losing these counties.

Lets recognize that of everything that could go wrong — there is only 1 big issues with California going through with a vote to secede from America.

Also this is not going to be a big issue — let’s take count of California’s bargaining position.

THE COUNTIES THAT CALIFORNIA LOSES ARE EXTREMELY POOR

THE CENTER CLUSTER OF COUNTIES THAT CALIFORNIA LOSES — WILL ESSENTIALLY BE “CUT-OFF” FROM INFRASTRUCTURE — they will lose electricity, university, rail road and major freeway access.

The Center cluster is going to have to negotiate with California and continue delivery of water, because they have no money, train, electrical, or major freeway access without California. They will be cut-off and that will destroy their economy and quality of life.

The actual amount of water that we will need in California is around 6 MILLION ACRE FEET

Good news — California already has approved water projects that would create an additional 4 MILLION ACRE-FEET OF WATER. The only reason these projects don’t exist now, is because of a lack of funding, but when California is a nation it will gain funding from not subsidizing the Federal government and can easily afford the $13 Billion dollars the water improvement projects need.

IF California funds existing water projects at $13 Billion (creating 4 million acre feet of water) and adds JUST ONE ADDITIONAL “sites project” at an additional $5 Billion (creating an additional 2 million acre feet of water) — we can completely replace the lost water from the Far Northern cluster (of 6 million acre feet of water).

The cost for replacing all of the lost domestic water would be $18 billion.

Given that California (at least) loses $32 Billion subsidizing America each year — this is a very affordable cost.

The Sites Project at $5 Billion creates 2 million acre-feet of water (it is project 1 ABOVE). If California built JUST 1 additional Sites project — it could replace the needed water. Why not build a second Sites Project in the valley right next to the one California is already constructing a dam at. The Sites dam is simply building a retaining wall between Foothill mountains. The area of the Sites project is full of foothill mountains.

The easiest option is for the counties that break away in the north to sell the water to California. No one is as desperate for the water as California, and the Northern regions don’t have the water pipelines to deliver the water to anyone else. HOWEVER — if they don’t want to do that — we can replace the water loss with just 1 additional Sites project and building all of the water infrastructure that is already planned.

https://mavensnotebook.com/dpg/KeyConcepts/Where_Delta_Water_Comes_and_Goes.html