CALIFORNIANS SUPPORT SECESSION — MORE THAN reported BEFORE
Stanford University and Reuters did a survey on support for secession. Both surveys showed around 1/3 of California supported the idea, and around 46 to 47.5% said they were not against discussing secession. However, both surveys under counted Latinos by 50% of their actual population in California. When we correctly count the percent of the Latino California 2017 population — support for secession rises from 1/3 to 1/2 of California (50.7% and 50% not opposed to Calexit from previous estimations of 27–32%). The statement that a majority of California is opposed to secession is DESTROYED when you correctly account for the Latino percent of California.
REUTERS — shows 32% support.
Called researcher directly — not reported in news — 15.5% for California said “don’t know”
= 47.5% willing to talk about
The survey methodology Interviewed all adults across America currently (not voters, and not just in California)
Asian — 45.6% oppose (survey: 9% reality: 5.6% of USA)
White — 61% oppose (survey: 76% reality: 73% of USA) (overcount 4%)
Black — 48.2% oppose (survey: 14% reality 13% of USA)
Latino — 44% oppose (survey: 9% reality 18% of USA) (undercount 50%)
Old White — 65.5% oppose
Old Latino — 50.5% oppose
All people only in California — 52.5% oppose
All people in America — 57.7% oppose
There is a 15% difference in how old Latinos view secession from old Whites, and there is also a 5% difference between how Americans and Californians view secession. These differences could raise the percent supporting California secession from a possible 47.5% to 52.5–62.5%.
When we redo the numbers with a California population, there is a majority not opposed to secession.
Asian 14.7% of California X 45.6% oppose = 6.7% of California opposed
White 36.8% of California X 61% oppose = 22% of California opposed
Black 6% of California X 48.2% oppose = 3% of California opposed
Latino 39% of California X 44% oppose = 17.16% of California opposed
6.7 + 22 + 3 + 17.16 = 49.3% of California opposed secession. Meaning 50.7% of California was not opposed to secession.
This is only 3% difference from the Ipsos Reuters number but it does show a technical majority not opposed, versus a technical majority opposed.
From: Marcus Ruiz Evans <marcus.ruiz.evans@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, Mar 2, 2017 at 11:32 AM
Subject: Re: About Reuters/Ipsos poll: 32% of CA — could I see “don’t know” %
To: Erin Morris <Erin.Morris@ipsos.com>
Cc: chris.jackson@ipsos.com, chris.kahn@thomsonreuters.com
Thank you for the quick response
It’s fascinating to know that the well-publicized poll in the news that 32% of Californians support Independence ALSO shows that 47.5% are at least not directly opposed to Independence..they “don’t know” if they are against it.
On Mar 2, 2017 6:46 AM, “Erin Morris” <Erin.Morris@ipsos.com> wrote:
Marcus, Chris Jackson forwarded me your question about the ‘don’t know’ percent from our California data. I’ve copied that below. Let me know if you need anything else!
Don’t know — 15.5%
Best,
Erin
Erin Morris
Ipsos Public Affairs
2020 K St., NW Suite 410, Washington DC 20006
Direct: 202.420.2026 | Mobile: 202.394.0923
STANFORD — 27%
“not sure” — 19%
= 46% open to discussion on Calexit
This survey methodology was based on Only California Adults, from 2010 census profile of California.
Using secession
White — 58% oppose (survey 432 of 763 = 56.6% of pop) (pop reality 37%)
Black — 61% oppose (survey 65 of 763 = 8.5% of pop) (pop reality 6%)
Latino — 44% oppose (survey 158 of 763 = 20.7% of pop) (pop reality 39%)
Asian — 63% oppose (survey 55 of 763 = 7% of pop) (pop reality 15%)
Not using secession
White — 62% oppose (survey 405 of 720 = 56.25% of pop) (pop reality 37%) (overcount 34%)
Black — 49% oppose (survey 71 of 720 = 9.87% of pop) (pop reality 6%)
Latino — 45% oppose (survey 153 of 720 = 21.25% of pop) (pop reality 39%) (undercount 54%)
Asian — 77% oppose (survey 55 of 720 = 7.6% of pop) (pop reality 15%)
When we redo the numbers with a California population, there is 50% not opposed to secession.
White 37% of California X 58 & 62% oppose = 21–23% of Ca opposed
Black 6% of California X 49 & 61% oppose = 3–3.6% of Ca opposed
Latino 39% of California X 44 & 45% oppose = 17–17.5% of Ca opposed
Asian 15% of California X 63 & 77% oppose = 9–11.55% of Ca opposed
21 + 3 + 17 + 9 = 50% opposed using word “secession”
23 + 3.6 + 17.5 + 11.55 = 55.65% opposed not using word “secession”
If you don’t say “secession” — 50% of California is not opposed to the idea.
